NVIDIA, and contractors who build data centers, and manufacturers who supply them, will all get rich.

As measured by prosperity life in the US is better; the poorest US state has a higher GDP per capita than most western European countries. Americans have bigger houses, more food, bigger cars, bigger salaries, and access to better medical care and schools if they've got an okay job. Most Europeans are lucky to make $40k/year post-tax. And America is still winning on innovation because its AI models are ahead of China's both in benchmarks and in user preferences. How many people do you know professionally who use a Chinese model and agent framework instead of e.g. Claude Code or OpenAI Codex?

OpenAI figured this out: it’s awesome marketing when people send each other links to the app with a convenient text box to continue the conversation. It’s viral.

Google meanwhile set this up so that “anyone with the link can view” is actually “anyone with the link and a Google account”.

That’s grade A failure of marketing.

The PM in charge of that decision ought to be walked off a plank.

Look to GCP as an example. It had to be done, with similar competitive dynamics, it was done very well.

Look to Android as another.

They're engaged in computing research and merely engage in consumer capitalism as a consequence of political and social constraints.

Products are a means to an end not the goal.

OpenAI and Anthropic are product companies and are more likely to fail like most product companies do as they will lack broad and wide depth.

Google has experience in design, implementation, and 24/7 ops with every type of SaaS there is. They can bin LLMs tomorrow and still make bank. Same cannot be said for OAI or Anthropic.

Google makes money selling ads. Nothing else matters.

In my opinion though this is a race to the bottom rather than a winner takes all situation so I don't think anyone is coming out ahead once the dust settles.

Google does things I hate with their products. But the money printing machine keeps going whrrr faster and faster.

I wouldn't argue it's that risky. Look at their past entanglements:

1. Google Default Search Bribe - brings in $20B a year for literally doing nothing

2. Google Maps: Google let them build their own custom app using Google's backend, and it worked fine all the way up until Apple chose to exit that arrangement

actually I can't think of any others, but is there an example of Apple getting burned by Google?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXDxNCzUspM

Beat OpenAI. The Founders came from OpenAI so there was obviously some disagreement about the direction there or they simply wanted more control.

This was in the middle of the boom when companies were fighting over talent, so I found it odd.

+ r&d costs

Of course, if one does not "pay" for investment, benefits are easily made ..

But project out forwards.

- What happens when Google builds a similar model? Or even Meta, as far behind as they are? They have more than Anthropic in cash flow to pour into these models.

- What happens when OSS is "enough" for most cases? Why would anyone pay 60% margins on inference?

What is Anthropic's moat? The UX is nice, but it can be copied. And other companies will have similarly intelligent models eventually. Margins will then be a race to the bottom, and the real winners will be GPU infra.

Source??

seems like there are a lot of those out there these days, and the costs are falling

> a massive concentration of talent and experience

Apparently 3000 employees? There's plenty of talent to be found elsewhere. Plus employees can be hired away.

> brand

meh.

> one of, if not the best, coding experiences

Seems easy enough to replicate, given how quickly they built it.