One of the strangest things in the AI industry is 'tokenomics'. It's not very clear why using GPT-4 in early 2023 was so expensive and then six months later 20 bucks could get you a fair amount of GPT-4 inference. This pattern has continued across various labs/providers for years--there is a continuous see-saw of pricing that doesn't seem related to anything.
So what open weight models do is at least provide a baseline of inference cost to add some sanity to the price markers. And of course predictability too--if you really want Kimi K2 instead of K3 you can still use it.
So the competitive pressure and predictability offered by open models is helpful for users
minimaxir 43 minutes ago [-]
> It's not very clear why using GPT-4 in early 2023 was so expensive and then six months later 20 bucks could get you a fair amount of GPT-4 inference.
FlashAttention was a hell of a drug.
thewebguyd 11 minutes ago [-]
> if you really want Kimi K2 instead of K3 you can still use it.
I think this is a very important aspect, especially after the huge GPT-4o backlash when GTP-5 came out. Each model has certain quirks, and areas where the previous model might be better for some use cases than the latest and greatest, and the labs so far seem to have no desire to offer some kind of "LTS" release.
julianlam 33 minutes ago [-]
Why do prescription medications cost so much, and generics so little (comparatively)?
Artificial inflation to recoup R&D.
gwbrooks 10 minutes ago [-]
Not sure pricing to recoup costs is artificial.
jmyeet 5 minutes ago [-]
Yeah I've been thinking about this and the analogy I came up with is that tokens are basically equivalent to an in-game currency in -free to play" mobile games. You're trading actual money for some notional "curency" or coins that can only be used for one thing but, unlike mobile game coins, you don't know how many coins something costs before you use them. It's kinda weird.
mawadev 42 minutes ago [-]
Its very clear: nobody wanted to pay for usage at that price point
serial_dev 34 minutes ago [-]
It's basically supply and demand?
recursive 14 minutes ago [-]
That's not really a full explanation unless you have some idea about why supply or demand are going up and down so much.
Levitz 2 minutes ago [-]
Aggressive expansion of infrastructure, R&D and very volatile audiences.
spwa4 18 minutes ago [-]
Because as per usual it's silicon valley misunderstanding economics. AI is HPC. And how the HPC market worked before:
If you're the best performing "computing cluster" (ie. whatever you call the entity that can complete a massive calculation), you get a blank check from Congress.
Why? Because you need those calculations to "pump" nuclear weapons. They are needed to calculate both the geometry to make fusion bombs possible at all and to calculate the effect of a given geometry. They are the reason US/Russia/China have the biggest and strongest weapons known to humanity. And of course, they were replicated worldwide for this reason. I mean not that anyone will admit this but we don't have the best possible solution, and we don't know either the upper or lower limits for fusion devices (plus the lower limit would be very useful for energy generation, which for the US would effectively mean almost literally unlimited large marine ships that never need refueling. And yes, the solution to that problem is almost literally a 3d shape. Not just that, but mostly)
Now it appears it does not work the same when you democratize computation. Humans want a particular amount of computation and are willing to pay a given price for that. But the accountants still saw the blank check from before and ... do what accountants do. Economics don't change because you make things bigger and accessible, do they? Oh ... wait a second ...
As someone put it recently though, we now have data. 2.3% of humans in the US are willing to pay $20 per month for the support of a model like GPT-5.5/Claude code. If that's true (and after years of having this model, why wouldn't it be?) ... it means AI startups are doomed (because it's not even 10% of what they need it to be to make economic sense).
gwbrooks 5 minutes ago [-]
I disagree with some of the framing, but that's what good discussion is about -- figuring out where we agree and disagree.
But consumer uptake strikes me as the worst way to judge whether the big AI shops will make it. That's not where most of the leveraged user return or deployable capital is.
thih9 23 minutes ago [-]
Is anyone using open weight models for agentic coding?
What is your stack (harness, model) and how much do you pay per month?
How would you compare your experience to a typical subsidized plan like Claude Code + Pro plan?
I’m asking because i keep hearing that open weight models are cheap and efficient - is that really the case in practice?
rglullis 16 minutes ago [-]
I am using GLM-5.2 via Ollama Cloud in the $20/month plan. With the same plan I can get many different API keys that I use to run my OpenWebUI server, my opencode and pi dev sessions. I am usually running 2 to 4 sessions concurrently, and I never hit quota limits. At work I get Claude, and I was getting reports that I was spending $75 per hour of work on Opus.
13 minutes ago [-]
curious_cat_163 34 minutes ago [-]
> The government should use procurement to create demand for portable, interoperable systems rather than permanent dependence on one API vendor.
Now, here is an idea that I have not heard before... and I think there is some merit to this. This is also the sort of thing that a state (looking at you CA, CO, IL, NY) could do, instead of just the federal government.
netdur 32 minutes ago [-]
why would any software want to have Kubernetes moment? can't count how devop I know that is confused by it
w29UiIm2Xz 3 minutes ago [-]
Kubernetes was not a great analogy for a probably legitimate point being made.
xyzsparetimexyz 29 minutes ago [-]
I still don't know what it is tbh. Something for docker?
chias 10 minutes ago [-]
I was in this state a few weeks ago. I spent a bit of time familiarizing myself then wrote up my learnings as a series of exercises.
If you think of docker as "kinda like vms except not really" and k8s as "kinda like deploying and composing docker containers but not really", this may be for you:
It's actually really neat, i wish i had bothered to learn it years ago.
genghisjahn 27 minutes ago [-]
If you can get it implemented for anything you can’t be fired.
spicyusername 23 minutes ago [-]
You... don't know what Kubernetes is... pretty impressive, honestly.
Its 2026 and its the de facto method of deploying software basically everywhere.
You gotta really work for it to not know what its for by now.
recursive 12 minutes ago [-]
I don't do much deployment but I'm in the same boat. Something something docker automation?
thewebguyd 3 minutes ago [-]
Everywhere, huh? Still plenty just running on VMs or serverless that don't need full blown container orchestration.
I'll agree that (nearly) everyone should know when Kubernetes is useful, but let's not pretend its the default method for everything. Even then, choosing to deploy on K8s falls on the sysadmins/DevOps I wouldn't expect the devs know or do much more than provide the Dockerfile.
YetAnotherNick 12 minutes ago [-]
2026 is the year for vercel and Render.
chrisandchris 16 minutes ago [-]
> Its 2026 and its the de facto method of deploying software basically everywhere.
That is some really impressive bubble you are living within. Basically everywhere - nowhere near that, no.
[edit]: Maybe containers, but software in general is so much more broad than containers.
Pxtl 26 minutes ago [-]
It's for running a massive number of docker containers and automatically managing them and scaling them up and down on demand. It is also so famously brutally complex that basically you need a dedicated Kube expert to handle it.
honkycat 14 minutes ago [-]
to be fair, at any large scale you need infra people.
honkycat 15 minutes ago [-]
Recently my company bought another company, and we kept zero of the original engineers, we just had to run the ghost ship.
We walked in, and it was fine. Because it was all kubernetes and laid out like every other app for the most part.
The kube hate is just sad at this point. You need to know like 15 concepts that are all applied in the same way. It mostly just works.
debarshri 9 minutes ago [-]
Shameless plugin. Funny enough we just made agents kubernetes native at adaptive [1]
In fact more countries should have government funded models. There are some obvious issues in China completely dominating open weights space. Kimi had funding of just $2B and could literally create national security threat. A lot of countries could fund something in the range of few billion for something so important. At the very least US and EU could fund few companies.
cr125rider 45 minutes ago [-]
Way over complicated for what most users need? Huh?
nttylock 27 minutes ago [-]
[flagged]
chrisjbg 13 minutes ago [-]
Dario is a FUD-spreading douche
Rendered at 17:27:32 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) with Vercel.
So what open weight models do is at least provide a baseline of inference cost to add some sanity to the price markers. And of course predictability too--if you really want Kimi K2 instead of K3 you can still use it.
So the competitive pressure and predictability offered by open models is helpful for users
FlashAttention was a hell of a drug.
I think this is a very important aspect, especially after the huge GPT-4o backlash when GTP-5 came out. Each model has certain quirks, and areas where the previous model might be better for some use cases than the latest and greatest, and the labs so far seem to have no desire to offer some kind of "LTS" release.
Artificial inflation to recoup R&D.
If you're the best performing "computing cluster" (ie. whatever you call the entity that can complete a massive calculation), you get a blank check from Congress.
Why? Because you need those calculations to "pump" nuclear weapons. They are needed to calculate both the geometry to make fusion bombs possible at all and to calculate the effect of a given geometry. They are the reason US/Russia/China have the biggest and strongest weapons known to humanity. And of course, they were replicated worldwide for this reason. I mean not that anyone will admit this but we don't have the best possible solution, and we don't know either the upper or lower limits for fusion devices (plus the lower limit would be very useful for energy generation, which for the US would effectively mean almost literally unlimited large marine ships that never need refueling. And yes, the solution to that problem is almost literally a 3d shape. Not just that, but mostly)
Now it appears it does not work the same when you democratize computation. Humans want a particular amount of computation and are willing to pay a given price for that. But the accountants still saw the blank check from before and ... do what accountants do. Economics don't change because you make things bigger and accessible, do they? Oh ... wait a second ...
As someone put it recently though, we now have data. 2.3% of humans in the US are willing to pay $20 per month for the support of a model like GPT-5.5/Claude code. If that's true (and after years of having this model, why wouldn't it be?) ... it means AI startups are doomed (because it's not even 10% of what they need it to be to make economic sense).
But consumer uptake strikes me as the worst way to judge whether the big AI shops will make it. That's not where most of the leveraged user return or deployable capital is.
What is your stack (harness, model) and how much do you pay per month?
How would you compare your experience to a typical subsidized plan like Claude Code + Pro plan?
I’m asking because i keep hearing that open weight models are cheap and efficient - is that really the case in practice?
Now, here is an idea that I have not heard before... and I think there is some merit to this. This is also the sort of thing that a state (looking at you CA, CO, IL, NY) could do, instead of just the federal government.
If you think of docker as "kinda like vms except not really" and k8s as "kinda like deploying and composing docker containers but not really", this may be for you:
https://ojensen.net/infra/understanding-k8s-1
It's actually really neat, i wish i had bothered to learn it years ago.
Its 2026 and its the de facto method of deploying software basically everywhere.
You gotta really work for it to not know what its for by now.
I'll agree that (nearly) everyone should know when Kubernetes is useful, but let's not pretend its the default method for everything. Even then, choosing to deploy on K8s falls on the sysadmins/DevOps I wouldn't expect the devs know or do much more than provide the Dockerfile.
That is some really impressive bubble you are living within. Basically everywhere - nowhere near that, no.
[edit]: Maybe containers, but software in general is so much more broad than containers.
We walked in, and it was fine. Because it was all kubernetes and laid out like every other app for the most part.
The kube hate is just sad at this point. You need to know like 15 concepts that are all applied in the same way. It mostly just works.
[1] https://adaptive.live